Penalty bet – Predictable if you know the referee and defensive style

For those new to the world of football betting, most will start with over/under, Asian handicap, 1X2 or first goal. But the deeper you go, the more people realize that the little-known side bets have a special appeal – partly because of the high odds, and partly because they contain many factors that can be analyzed reasonably. AndPenalty betis one of them.

Just grasp a few basic principles and you will see thatPenalty betIt’s not a matter of luck, but of probability – and when it’s right, the rewards are double, triple your bet with just one blow of the whistle.

What is the penalty bet?

It sounds like a “lottery” – because how do you know when the referee blows his whistle and points to the penalty spot? But for experienced players, this isa completely predictable betbased on referee data, each team’s defensive style, defenders’ playing positions, as well as the frequency of fouls in the penalty area.

This is a type of bet in the groupspecial bet, where the player bets that in the match there will beone of the two teams was penalized. Bookmakers like rakhoitv Usually divided into options:

• With or without penalty in the match

• Which team was awarded a penalty (Team A / Team B / Neither team)

• Total penalties in the match (0, 1, 2 or more)

• Penalty in the first or second half

Depending on the bookmaker, the odds for “a team being awarded a penalty” range from3.50 to 6.00– that means if you bet 100k, you can get 350k to 600k if you guess correctly. A huge profit from just one situation.

Why is the penalty bet getting more and more attention?

VAR technology makes penalties appear more often

Previously, only when the referee saw clearly would he award a penalty. But since VAR was introduced, many collisions, even very light ones, have been detected. According to UEFA statistics, from the 2022/23 season:

• Average number of penalties per round in tournaments with VAR increased by 28%

• In the 2024/25 Premier League alone, each round has an average of4.2 penalties

• Bundesliga is even higher, with4.6 goals/match week

This opens up a lot of opportunities forPenalty betwhen the frequency of occurrence is much higher than before.

Some referees have a “habit” of blowing penalties.

Not everyone is the same when it comes to officiating. Some referees are quick to overlook challenges, while others are very strict in the penalty area.

Typical example:

Referee	Tournament	Average penalties/match (2023–2025)
Michael Oliver	Premier League	0.56
Mark Guide	Serie A	0.67
Juan Martínez Munuera	The League	0.72
Felix Zwayer	Bundesliga	0.81

If you know who is the main goalkeeper in Football rankings, you can predict the possibility of a penalty, thereby considering placing bets at the right time.

Some teams often commit fouls in the penalty area.

A good defense does not mean no penalties. Many teams have deep defenses, but often have immature tackling or lack of concentration in marking, leading to many penalties.

Example for the 2024/25 season as of early May:

• Lorientwas penalized 11 times

• Empoli– 9 times

• Cadiz– 10 times

• Sassuolo– 8 times

If you know which teams are prone to fouls in the penalty area, then picking them as your teampenaltyIt’s not a gamble, it’s a bet on clear facts.

When should you bet on the team that gets a penalty?

The team defends by pressing in the penalty area

When defenders are constantly rushing to steal the ball in the penalty area, the risk of fouls is extremely high. A missed tackle, a shirt pull, or a slight push can be enough to trigger VAR.

Teams like Bologna, Brentford, Aston Villa have an active defense and are not afraid of collisions – suitable for this bet.

The match had many situations of entering the penalty area.

When both teams attack with crosses, high balls, or attacks from the wing – it is easy to collide with defenders. Matches like Real Madrid vs Girona, Liverpool vs Fulham often have 1-2 clear situations for VAR to intervene.

Referees tend to blow many penalties

If you look up the referee’s name before the match and know that he has a high frequency of giving 11m (0.6 or more per match), odds of 3.50 for “Team X gets a penalty” are worth trying.

Defensive players with high foul rates

Watch out for defenders who tend to be “green” in defence like Kumbulla, Llorente, Bronn, or newly promoted players who are not used to pressure. They are the source of penalties that you can completely predict.

When should you avoid betting on the team that gets a penalty?

Matches with “cold-handed” referees, few penalties

There are people like Daniele Orsato, Anthony Taylor – who only blow penalties when it is a very obvious foul. In matches with them as the starting referee, odds of 4.50 still seem attractive, but the risk is much higher.

Strong defense, experienced, few fouls

Center-backs like Rüdiger, Gabriel, Hummels rarely make unnecessary mistakes. A stable and well-organized defense will limit the risk of a penalty.

The two teams played a controlled game with few tackles.

Matches like Man City vs Brighton – penalties are rare because players rarely collide, mainly pass the ball and move.

Tips for effective betting on the team that gets a penalty

• Check the referee before the match, priority is given to those with high penalty scores

• Analyze how your opponent attacks– if they often enter the penalty area, the chance of creating a penalty increases

• View the foul index in the penalty area of ​​the defender of the team you bet on– can be found at SofaScore or WhoScored

• If you watch live, pay attention to the dispute situations.– can bet on live penalty when the match starts to heat up

• You should not bet on this bet when your chosen team is completely pressured and cannot enter the penalty area.– the possibility of a penalty will decrease

Typical matches that exploded the penalty bet of the team in the 2024/25 season

Match	The team was penalized	Minute of occurrence	Odds results
Fiorentina vs Empoli	Empoli	42’	Win
PSG vs Lens	Lens	67’	Win
Leverkusen vs Union Berlin	Union Berlin	58’	Win
Napoli vs Udinese	Udinese	16’	Win
Roma vs Monza	Monza	71’	Win

Average eating rate:4.00
Bet 100k → profit 300k with just one penalty kick.

Conclude

Penalty team betIt is not a game of emotions or luck. When you understand how a team defends, who will start in defense, and what style the referee is, you can make a rational decision and close the deal after just one whistle from the penalty area.

In a football match, sometimes a goal comes not from effort or tactics, but from a poorly timed shirt pull, a clumsy foul – and it is these seemingly “accidental” moments that are fertile ground for those who know how to seize them.Penalty bet.

Don’t be afraid to try this type of bet. It’s not as flashy as over/under, nor as dramatic as betting on the minute of the goal, but it’s an extremely sophisticated choice for those who can read the game like a book – every tackle, every step, every whistle – can lead you to victory.