Betting Favorites For Kentucky Derby 2024 Right Now
The 150th Kentucky Derby is on the horizon, and although the most lucrative prep races have yet to be run, some horses are already setting themselves apart from the rest.
Entrance into the Kentucky Derby starting gate is determined by the amount of qualifying points a horse earns. There are free berths given to the winners of the European and the Japanese Road To The Kentucky Derby, but the remaining eighteen slots go to the horses with the most points.
As of this writing, here are the ten horses with the most Kentucky Derby qualifying points.
Timberlake (66 points)
Timberlake was a very talented two-year-old who shows no signs of having regressed at age three. The winner of the Grade I Champagne Stakes last year, he made his sophomore debut a victorious one in the Grade II Rebel Stakes.
Timberlake inherited speed from his sire, Into Mischief (who has also sired Kentucky Derby winners in Mandaloun and Authentic) and stamina from his damsire, Lookin at Lucky.
Find more information on the Derby contenders here: twinspires.com/edge/racing/kentucky-derby/
Dornoch (60 points)
Dornoch was in the spotlight before he ever ran a single race, as he is a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mage. Both colts are by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic and out of the graded stakes-placed Big Brown mare Puca. Dornoch has proven more precocious than his big brother, having already won the Grade II Remsen Stakes and the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Domestic Product (60 points)
Domestic Product’s win in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby may have been overshadowed by the controversy surrounding the tote board malfunction, but even without wagering, his triumph in a four-horse photo finish was certainly exciting. Domestic Product is a son of Practical Joke, who himself was a sprinter but who has already sired middle-distance runners such as Practical Move. His dam, Goods and Services, is by Paynter.
Sierra Leone (55 points)
The winner of the Grade II Risen Star Stakes, Sierra Leone is lightly raced but has shown talent and class in each of his three career starts. His sire, Gun Runner, was a ten-furlong specialist, and his dam, Heavenly Love, won the Grade I Darley Alcibiades Stakes. Sierra Leone could be the key to his trainer, multiple Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown, winning his first Kentucky Derby.
Track Phantom (55 points)
Track Phantom was a runner-up to the aforementioned Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, but he had built up solid class credentials with earlier wins in both the listed Gun Runner Stakes and the Grade III Lecomte Stakes. With Quality Road as a sire and Into Mischief as a damsire, Track Phantom should be able to get middle distances easily. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, is North America’s winningest Thoroughbred trainer, but like Chad Brown, he is still seeking his first win in the Run for the Roses.
Deterministic (50 points)
Deterministic only has two lifetime starts, but both have resulted in wins: he broke his maiden at Saratoga in August, and following a long layoff, he scored a stalking victory in the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.
He is a son of Liam’s Map, who won Grade I races at eight and nine furlongs but never tried longer distances, and his damsire is champion sprinter Speightstown, so stamina may be a concern. A trivial point against him is that only one horse has ever won both the Gotham and the Kentucky Derby, that being the immortal Secretariat.
No More Time (45 points)
Prior to finishing second to Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby, No More Time had won the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes in front running fashion. He has run all five of his career starts in Florida despite being bred in the state of Iowa. His sire, Not This Time, is a graded stakes-winning half brother to Liam’s Map, and his dam, Baroness Juliette, is a winning daughter of Speightstown, so the same distance limitations that nag Deterministic may also plague No More Time.
Fierceness (36 points)
The Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Male of 2023 suffered a major hit to his reputation with a dull third in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes, and he looks to rebuild his legacy in the Grade I Florida Derby. He is owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher, the same team that campaigned Forte, the former champion-turned Kentucky Derby favorite who was controversially scratched on the morning of last year’s Derby. His sire is the speedy young stallion City of Light, but he has a source of stamina in damsire Stay Thirsty.
El Grande O (30 points)
El Grande O is a veteran in a field of relative newbies, with a whopping eleven career starts to date. He has several placings in graded stakes, most recently the Gotham, but he has two wins in ungraded stakes races. He has yet to start outside of New York, however. His sire is the beautifully bred Take Charge Indy, and his dam, Rainbow Song, is a stakes-placed daughter of the extremely successful sire Unbridled’s Song.
Catching Freedom (25 points)
Catching Freedom, who won the listed Smarty Jones Stakes and finished third in the Risen Star, has an advantage over most other horses on this list in that he has already won a race at Churchill Downs, the host track of the Kentucky Derby. A son of Constitution out of a mare by Pioneerofthe Nile, he, like Timberlake, hails from the barn of Brad Cox. He looks to face Track Phantom again in the March 23rd Grade II Louisiana Derby.
